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Forex factory auction market theory

forex factory auction market theory

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Video 3 - Auction Market Theory Simplified

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One of the most popular methods is using the market profile. Auction market theory is something that all traders should learn, understand and master. Even if they have no interest in trading strategies based around the concept. Auction market theory applies to any market. Whether it be cars, houses, soybeans, gold, oil or company stock. Having contextual understanding of the market allows traders to build an expectation for where the market is most likely to move next.

Obviously this is very powerful and can be used as a non-mechanical trade filter. This allows traders to decide whether a level is likely to hold. Is a pattern more or less likely to fail. Also where to set targets and stops. All free markets seek fair value and is determined by one of the pillars of economic theory: supply and demand. Fair value is the balance between what someone is willing to pay and what price another person is willing to sell.

It is the price at which buyers and sellers agree. Markets are complex and what drives price up or down depends on the constant shift in market sentiment or a fundamental change in market conditions. These conditions move price in a seemingly random rhythm between trending price moves and consolidating sideways markets.

Its our job as traders to understand these price moves. At the very least exploit some inefficiency in the market, through probabilities and good risk management. As technical traders we use charts and graphical techniques to interpret these market rhythms. This is when the concept of auction market theory can assist us. When markets consolidate or are range bound, according to auction market theory the market is balanced.

Price trades within a bound range where the volume traded or time spent within this range is normally distributed. The point of control is interpreted to be the fair value for that market at that particular time. Price makes significant moves in one direction until it once again reaches a state of balance.

The market will then range sideways. In trending markets volume is thinly distributed over the trending area and price moves quickly through these areas. We know that buyers are motivated to get a good deal on how much they pay for petrol at the pump. Whilst the petrol retailer wants to get as much per litre of petrol as they can. This is consistent with any market whether it be commodities, real estate or fruit and vegetables at the local market. So what happens is a market will develop a price range.

Prices tend to fluctuate above and below what is considered value. At such high levels buyers become more reluctant to pay these high prices. At these high levels consumers may decide to hold off on filling their tanks. They might even choose to not drive their vehicles so often. So, the volume of consumers willing to pay those higher prices becomes less and the demand for petrol at the pump dries up.

On the other hand, petrol retailers are keen to sell as much petrol as possible at these prices. The aggressiveness of petrol retailers to sell is at a high. At these high prices and the combination of less aggressive buyers and more aggressive sellers, creates a situation of unfair pricing.

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