Forex analysis


Basic technical analysis forex

basic technical analysis forex

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A flag pattern is a continuation pattern which is described as a short sloping rectangle bounded by two parallel trend lines. A pennant pattern is a continuation pattern which is described as an initial large movement followed by a consolidation period with converging trendlines. It tends to be followed by a breakout in the direction of the strong current trend and is usually a consolidation where the price action takes the form of a symmetrical triangle. A wedge pattern is described as a pattern whose trend lines above and below converge into a triangular shape.

Also known as a rising or falling wedge, these are patterns where price loses momentum in the current trend. They are reversal patterns that tend to have an explosive move once the trend line is broken and subsequently provoke a counter trend move. A minimum target is usually the A channel is defined by at least 4 points of contact support and resistance.

Channels can be rising, falling or horizontal. Occasionally channels evolve over time to triangles as traders attempt to undercut each other within the channel range. A double top is a chart pattern described by two distinct, well-defined peaks which occur at around the same price level. Conversely, a double bottom is described by two distinct, well-defined troughs which occur at around the same level.

A triple top is a chart pattern described by three distinct, well-defined peaks which occur at around the same price level. Conversely, a triple bottom is described by three distinct, well-defined troughs which occur at around the same level. A head and shoulders pattern is a reversal pattern, not a continuation pattern.

The measured target from the entry point is equal to the distance from the top of the head to the neckline. The breakout past the neckline usually is powerful as it triggers stops of traders who had built counter-trend positions anticipating a possible reversal. It measures the magnitude and timing of up or down moves of an instrument. The RSI is a relatively simple indicator, but a very powerful one. RSI values below 30 are considered to be oversold i. Moving Averages MA are widely used indicators for an important reason: by filtering out short-term price fluctuations, they smooth out the price sequence and hence make it much clearer to see the bigger picture.

The calculation of MAs is very simple — every data point is the average of the specified number of previous data points for example, a day MA averages the latest days of daily data points in order to produce the next one. There are two popular types of MAs:. These particular MAs are very useful indicators when looking at the medium term view of an instrument.

An important event that many analysts look for is when two MAs cross. This can often indicate a substantial change in the general trend of an instrument. Volume is an often overlooked but important indicator. It shows the associated volume for every price change, and this can be used to interpret the relative strength of the move. For example, a rising market should in theory be accompanied by rising volume and vice versa.

Low-volume moves tend to have a higher probability of being reversed at a later stage. This is because a legitimate move higher or lower should be accompanied by an increased level of interest by market participants, indicating that something has changed in the fundamentals of the particular instrument.

An interesting phenomenon near market extremes is that of market exhaustion. This is where price moves are usually very sharp in magnitude, with increased volume and short duration. This reflects human psychology where investors either try to get into a market uptrend in fear of missing out, or getting forced out in a downtrend. List choice News Letter.

Email address:. Click here to open Help. All known information is reflected in the price. Buyers and sellers move markets based on expectations and emotions fear and greed. Markets fluctuate. The actual price may not reflect the underlying value. Fundamentals of Technical Analysis. Trending Market. The last branch of technical analysis and the one that we are mainly concerned about in this article deals with market structure or the character of the market indicators.

These indicators include moving averages, price patterns, trendlines and oscillators. The basic principle of technical analysis is the trend. In order to understand the trend, the technical trader must first define trend, know why the trend is important, and distinguish between major and minor trends.

There is no question that markets trend. Traders and investors hope to buy a Forex pair at the beginning of an uptrend at a low price, ride the trend, and sell the currency pair when the trend ends at a high price. Trends exist in all lengths, from long-term trends that occur over decades to short-term trends that occur or 1-minute or tick charts. Trends of different lengths tend to have the same characteristics.

In other words, a trend on the monthly chart will behave the same as a trend on a five-minute chart. One key to understanding trends is for the investor to choose the trend which is most important for them based on their investment objectives, their personal preferences, and the amount of time they can devote to watching the market action. Trading trends would be easy if the investor could spot a new trend at a bottom, buy and then exit at the top.

This does not happen of course in practice since investors may be too early or too late in spotting optimal entries and exits. This is the reason for studying charts, moving averages, oscillators, support and resistance as well as other important technical tools. Investors need to determine when a trend is beginning and ending as early as possible.

This sounds simple but remember that technical analysis is not fortune telling so trend trading ideas may not perfectly predict the future. Investors should also be aware that under certain market conditions, these technical tools may not work.

Trends can change suddenly and without warning. This is why investors should be aware of the risks and protect themselves against such occurrences. The basic trend trading strategy involves two things: first the investor must decide where to enter a position and second, where to exit. The entry is often easier than the exit. When exiting a position, the investor must choose when to exit to capture a profit, and when to exit to protect against a loss.

The key is to make the right decisions at the right price levels in order to avoid giving back profits and to protect against large losses. One of the great advantages in studying the trends of markets is that technical analysis involves analyzing prices.

Knowing prices can help an investor know when something is either right or wrong with an investment. At the same time, risk of loss can be determined ahead of time. This ability is unique to technical analysis. In summary, technical analysis can be used by the investor to determine the trend, when it is changing, when it has changed, when to enter or exit a position.

When trend trading, the basic premise is: when analysis of the trend is wrong, exit the position. Simply stated, a trend is a series of higher-tops and higher bottoms or lower-tops and lower-bottoms. Of course, higher-tops and higher-bottoms indicate an uptrend and lower-tops and lower-bottoms indicate a downtrend.

Recognizing when a trend is beginning or ending is most important to the trader. If one cannot make sense of the chart, then the best thing to do is stay out of the market until an easily identifiable trend can be determined. Trends vary in terms of length and magnitude so it is important to the investor that the trend be recognized early and long enough for the investor to take advantage of it.

In order to be a successful trend trader, the investor must know why identifying trends is important. In addition, they must be able to recognize an uptrend, downtrend and a trading range. The concept of support and resistance is also important to the trend trader. Finally, the trend trader must be aware of the major methods for determining trends as well as the major signals that a trend is reversing. As an investor, you must know why identifying trends is important.

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